The recent upsets in the ICC Cricket World Cup, including the Netherlands defeating South Africa and Afghanistan’s victory over England, have drawn attention to the unpredictability of sports. Elo ratings, originally developed for chess, provide a means to quantify the relative strengths of cricket teams. These ratings are based on prior and recent performance, with a significant difference in ratings indicating a potential upset. The Netherlands’ win, despite a 457-point difference in Elo ratings, ranks as the second-largest upset in World Cup history after Bangladesh’s victory over Pakistan in 1999. The analysis also reveals that having the highest Elo rating at the start of the World Cup doesn’t guarantee victory, with India in 1983 and Pakistan in 1992 being examples of unfancied teams that went on to win the tournament.
Elo Ratings Analyze World Cup Upsets in Cricket
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